RBA 29 September 2026: hold or hike — what to do with your mortgage before the meeting

Mortgage review before 2:30pm on 29 September? Speak to a broker · Refinance playground · Refinancing service · Call 0400 77 77 55

The Reserve Bank will publish its next cash-rate decision at 2:30pm AEST on Tuesday 29 September 2026. The target is still 4.35%, effective from 12 August 2026, after a unanimous hold. That is the fact. The rest of this month is argument.

July CPI eased. Trimmed mean did not. Housing is still the largest annual contributor. The August inflation print — the one everyone will want to argue about — lands at 11:30am on Wednesday 30 September, the morning after the Board has already voted. If you are waiting for that number before you look at your loan, you have the sequence backwards.

This is a hold-or-hike meeting. It is not a cut meeting. I will not pretend otherwise, and I will not pick the vote for you. What I will do is walk the same ground from two chairs: the one the Governor has to sit in, and the one at your kitchen table. Then a checklist you can finish before 2:30pm.

General information only — not personal credit advice, and not a rate call.

Background if you are catching up: August hold playbook · July CPI 3.5% checklist · mortgage stress at an 18-year high.

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TL;DR — two clocks, one loan

If you only do four things before the meeting: write down the rate you actually pay, add 0.25% to it in a spreadsheet, ask your lender for a retention figure in writing, and refuse any refinance quote that silently resets you to 30 years.

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What the Board already told you in August

I am not going to invent a Michele Bullock quote. The 11 August statement (MR 2026-19) is public, and it is enough.

The Board left the cash rate at 4.35%. The decision was unanimous. It said financial conditions had tightened after three cash-rate increases earlier in 2026. Consumer spending growth was slowing as expected. Housing momentum had shifted — prices falling in some capitals, new housing loans down noticeably. The labour market had eased a little more than expected.

It also said the thing households keep skipping in the second paragraph: inflation is still too high. Headline inflation had picked up materially in the second half of 2025. Trimmed mean remained elevated. The Board does not expect inflation back around the midpoint of the 2–3% target until late 2027, and it listed upside risks to that path. Policy was judged somewhat restrictive, which is why they held. They also said they will do what they consider necessary to bring inflation back to target, including increasing the cash rate further if upside risks materialise.

That last sentence is why September is live. A hold in August was an assessment pause, not a cycle-end speech.

If you want the household version of the same statement: three hikes are in the pipes, the economy is cooling on some measures, and the Board is not prepared to declare victory while underlying inflation sits above the band.

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Why September is a genuine hold-or-hike meeting

The mandate has not changed. The cash-rate overview still puts it in one line: consumer price inflation between 2 and 3 per cent, and sustained full employment.

From the Governor’s chair, September is awkward in a specific way. The Board meets without August CPI. The last official inflation read is July, released 26 August:

Headline inflation eased. That is real progress. Trimmed mean did not. That is why a 3.5% print did not close the hike debate. Housing is still doing the heavy lifting on the annual number — and housing is the group mortgage holders feel twice: once in the CPI, again on the repayment.

Labour-market prints, household spending and any incoming activity data between mid-August and 28 September still matter. They do not replace the inflation arithmetic. They sit beside it.

From the kitchen table, the same week looks different. You do not vote. You also do not get a new cash rate at 2:31pm. You get a media release, then a lag, then — if your loan is variable — a lender letter. If you are fixed, you get nothing until expiry unless you break. If you are waiting on finance, you get a serviceability question.

Those are different problems. Treat them as different problems.

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What the big banks are saying — and what that is worth

Public research desks have moved since the July CPI. Aussie’s 9 September 2026 round-up (accessed 14 September 2026) put the four majors here:

Direction is no longer the argument among the majors. Timing is. NAB is prepared to move in September. The other three would rather wait for a fuller inflation read — which, given the ABS calendar, is the print the Board will not have on the 29th.

Westpac’s shift is the one that changed the tone this month. Aussie reported chief economist Luci Ellis pointing to stronger-than-expected household incomes and larger spillovers from the data-centre boom — demand holding up more than the Bank had assumed, which makes a clean inflation descent harder. That is a research desk’s story, not a Board minute. I am repeating it so you can see why the September/November split exists, not so you can bet your settlement date on it.

Treat the table as context. Do not treat it as a vote tally. Banks revise. Markets reprice. The Board reads its own forecast, its own risk assessment, and a mandate that does not include your broker’s preferred headline.

Related reading if you want the “should I just wait” framework without the September calendar: wait for rate cuts or refinance now.

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The Governor’s chair — how a September vote is actually framed

If you sit in the Governor’s seat for a minute, you are not trying to be popular on Tuesday afternoon. You are trying not to let high inflation become embedded, and you are trying not to crush employment for no gain.

The August statement already did the hard rhetorical work:

• Policy is somewhat restrictive after three increases this year.
• The economy appears to be slowing as expected.
• Inflation is still too high and not back near the midpoint until late 2027.
• Upside risks remain — energy, capacity, a world that has not fully digested the Middle East oil shock the statement named.
• The Board will hike if those upside risks materialise.

A September hold would say: the three hikes are still working through, housing and new lending have cooled, and one softer headline print plus a sticky trimmed mean is not yet a reason to tighten again before August CPI.

A September hike would say: 3.6% underlying, housing still hot, demand more resilient than hoped, and waiting until November leaves another two months of inflation running above the band.

Either sentence can be written in Martin Place without contradicting August. That is why this meeting is live. It is also why a household that “knows” the answer is usually repeating a bank note, not reading the mandate.

Full employment is the other half of the job. If labour-market easing is orderly, the Board can afford patience. If it is not, the trade-off gets uglier. I will not pretend I have the Board’s internal labour forecast on 14 September. I will say this: a mortgage file is a poor place to express a view on that trade-off.

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The kitchen table — what +0.25% actually does

A cash-rate move of 25 basis points is not a promise that your home loan moves 25 basis points the same afternoon. Lenders choose pass-through. Some match. Some lag. Some move the acquisition rate and leave the loyalty rate alone.

Still, you need a number you can feel. Here is a worked example, not a quote for your loan.

Assumptions: $800,000 remaining principal, principal-and-interest, starting rate 6.50%, no extra repayments, no offset. This is illustrative. Your rate, term and product will differ.

Per $100,000 of loan, at these mid-6% rates, a 25 basis point step is roughly $16–$17 a month on a 30-year P&I term — not the old “$25 per $100k” rule of thumb people still repeat from a different rate decade.

On an $800,000 loan, $132 a month is $1,584 a year. That is a grocery line, a childcare gap, or the difference between an offset working and an offset sitting empty. It is not a rounding error if the household is already in the Roy Morgan “at risk” band.

Run the same step on your rate in the refinance playground. If the extra repayment does not fit after tax and the usual bills, you have your answer about whether this meeting is academic.

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What still moves on your loan before 2:30pm

Your lender can reprice without a Board meeting

The August hold did not freeze existing-customer grids. Acquisition offers and retention desks move on competition, not on the cash-rate headline. If you have not asked for a written retention figure since winter, you are comparing last season’s rumour with this month’s billboard.

Use the retention email and call script, then compare any switch through the refinancing service.

Term-for-term is the only honest refinance comparison

A lower monthly figure that resets you to 30 years can cost more lifetime interest than staying put. That trap is common enough that we keep a separate guide: nearly half of refinancers reset to 30 years. Ask for the same remaining term. If a lender will not price it, that is information.

Fixed expiries do not care about 29 September

If your fix ends in October or November, the Board meeting is background noise. Your revert rate is the deadline. Model it now. Do not discover the revert the week the letter arrives. Framework: should I fix my home loan in 2026?.

Buyers are playing a different game

High-LVR first-home files — especially around 95% — have less serviceability slack if a hike lands before settlement. Keep pre-approval in date. Keep the 90-day statements boring. The first home buyers service is the lane for that file; the first home buyer guide is the reading list.

Investors should stress the portfolio, not one property: rent shading, vacancies, and the extra 25 basis points on every loan you already have. Start at the investment loans service.

Owner-occupiers who are not refinancing still need the home loans rate-and-structure check if the current product no longer matches how they bank.

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Checklist — 14 September to 2:30pm on the 29th

This week

• Write down interest rate, repayment, remaining term, offset/redraw, fixed expiry from internet banking.
• Stress +0.25% on the after-tax budget. Use the table above as a sense-check, then your own numbers.
• Email or call retention. Get the offer in writing. Date it.
• Run term-for-term refinance maths in the playground. Refuse a 30-year reset presented as a saving.

The week of the meeting

• Buyers under finance: confirm rate-lock and finance-clause timing with your broker. Do not go unconditional on a guess.
• Fixed shoppers: compare comparison rate and break costs, not a two-year teaser. Lenders can move fixed books before 2:30pm.
• If repayments are already tight, read hardship rights before you miss a payment — mortgage hardship options.
• Do not lodge a file with a messy 90-day statement because you wanted to “beat the RBA”. A declined or delayed application is a more expensive surprise than a 25 basis point headline.

After 2:30pm on 29 September

• Read the RBA media release, not the first social post.
• If the Board hikes: wait for your lender’s notice. Pass-through is not automatic and not always 25 basis points.
• If the Board holds: revisit the retention gap. Pauses sometimes sharpen acquisition offers for people who actually switch.
• On 30 September, read August CPI for the November meeting. Do not retrofit it onto a vote that has already happened.

We will update this same URL after the 2:30pm release. You should not need a new bookmark.

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Hold path vs hike path — same file, different next email

If a hike letter does arrive, the practical next read is lender rate-rise letter — what to do next.

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What we are not doing

• Calling the vote. NAB can be right. The other three can be right. The Board can disappoint all four.
• Telling you to fix or float. That depends on break costs, how long you will keep the property, and whether you can live with a revert rate.
• Repeating the July CPI explainer or the Roy Morgan stress tables. Those pieces still stand. This one is the decision-week playbook.
• Guaranteeing a cheaper repayment if you enquire. Approval is never guaranteed. Responsible lending still applies.

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Primary sources (accessed 14 September 2026)

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Bottom line

On 29 September the Board will choose between patience and another tightening step. Both choices fit inside the August statement. Neither choice is a personal instruction about your loan.

The work that is actually yours sits in the fortnight you still have: the rate on the statement, the extra $16-odd per $100,000 if another 25 basis points pass through, the retention email you have not sent, and the refinance quote that only looks cheaper because someone reset the term.

If you want those numbers on your file before 2:30pm, enquire for a rate review or start the apply pathway. Bring a recent statement. I will not guess the Board for you. I will tell you what the statement, the CPI print, and your repayment actually say.

FAQ

When is the RBA decision on 29 September 2026?

The decision is published at 2:30pm AEST on Tuesday 29 September 2026, after the 28–29 September Board meeting. Confirm on rba.gov.au.

Will the RBA hike in September 2026?

Unknown. Public bank research is split on September versus November, not on whether another hike comes this year. This page is not a forecast.

Does a cash-rate hold freeze my home loan?

No. It freezes the overnight target. Your lender still sets the rate on your contract.

Should first-home buyers wait for the meeting before they exchange?

Do not time exchange on a 2:30pm headline. Keep pre-approval current, keep statements clean, and model a +0.25% serviceability path if you are high LVR. See the first home buyers service.

Who is Azure Home Loans?

Azure Home Loans is an Australian mortgage broker. Credit representative ACR 538895, authorised under Australian Credit Licence 390261 (Yellow Brick Road). General information only; responsible lending applies.

General information only. Azure Home Loans Pty Ltd (ACR 538895, auth. under ACL 390261). Not personal financial or credit advice. Confirm release times on official sites before acting. Cash-rate changes are not a guarantee of an equal change to your home-loan rate.