Buy now or wait for the 5 May RBA decision? An Australian home buyer's framework (April 2026)

By Bishnu Adhikari, mortgage broker and director, Azure Home Loans — Saturday, 25 April 2026.

If you have spent any of this ANZAC long weekend at an open home, you already know the question. I have had it five times in the last fortnight, in roughly these words: "Should we buy now, or wait two weeks for the RBA?"

It is a fair question. The March-quarter CPI lands on Wednesday 29 April. The Reserve Bank decides on Tuesday 5 May. Three of the four major banks — CBA, NAB and Westpac — are forecasting a third 25-basis-point hike, taking the cash rate from 4.10% to 4.35%. ANZ is the lone hold caller. Markets are pricing roughly a 60–62% probability of a hike. Whatever the Board does, your repayment, your borrowing capacity, and the auction next Saturday all move with it.

Here is the part most "wait or buy" articles miss. The decision is not really about rates. It is about whether the change in your borrowing capacity will outrun the change in property prices in the same direction. That is what actually decides whether waiting two weeks helps you or hurts you.

I will walk through it the way I walk through it with clients. Three scenarios. Real numbers. A worked example for a $750,000 buyer. What CoreLogic and ABS data actually say about house prices through the last hiking cycle. Then a six-step plan for the next ten days regardless of which way the call goes.

Why this matters this week: if you are mid-search, mid-pre-approval or mid-finance clause, the move you make in the next ten days affects what you can offer, what you settle on, and whether you spend the next two years catching up to the market or in front of it.

Quick navigation

• The trap in "just wait"
• What each RBA scenario does to a $750,000 buyer
• What history actually says about house prices through rate moves
• Where the supply side sits in April 2026
• A ten-day framework for buying around the 5 May decision
• Who should probably wait, and who probably shouldn't
• Pre-approval: the quiet lever most buyers undervalue
• Frequently asked questions
• References and disclosures

The trap in "just wait" {#the-trap-in-just-wait}

There is a comfortable assumption that floats around when rates are about to move: "if the RBA hikes, prices will fall and I will buy in cheaper. If the RBA cuts, my repayments fall and I am better off either way."

It sounds logical. It is also almost always wrong, because it ignores the second-order effect. When a bank approves your loan, it does not lend you a dollar amount — it lends you a dollar amount that depends on the assessment rate. That assessment rate is your actual rate plus the 3% APRA serviceability buffer (APG 223 Residential Mortgage Lending). If the cash rate moves by 25 basis points, lender variable rates typically move by the same amount within a week — and your assessment rate moves with them.

That has two consequences nobody mentions at an open home:

1. Your borrowing capacity moves before the property market does. When standard variable rates rise by 25 bp, average household borrowing capacity falls by roughly 2–3% almost immediately (RBA Bulletin, "How Mortgage Rate Changes Affect the Economy"). It does not wait for a CoreLogic monthly print.
2. House prices respond, but slowly and unevenly. CoreLogic's Home Value Index shows that even during the sharpest part of the 2022–23 hiking cycle (cash rate from 0.10% to 4.35%), the national index fell only about 8.4% peak-to-trough — and recovered all of it within fifteen months. In Sydney and Brisbane, the recovery was faster than the fall. In Perth, prices barely paused.

Translation: if you wait two weeks for a rate move, your borrowing capacity changes faster and by a larger percentage than property prices do. If rates rise, the bank takes more away from you than the seller does. If rates fall, the market re-prices upward in days; your capacity expands at the same time, but so does everybody else's, and competition steepens.

Waiting is not free. It is a bet that the slower-moving variable (prices) will out-move the faster-moving variable (your capacity), in the direction you want, in the window you have. That bet has not paid off in any of the last three RBA cycles.

What each RBA scenario does to a $750,000 buyer {#what-each-rba-scenario-does-to-a-750000-buyer}

Let me make this real. Take a couple buying in middle-ring Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane or Perth, looking at a target purchase of about $750,000. Combined gross income $180,000. Two children. Standard expenses. No HECS-HELP. They are pre-approved today at a 30-year owner-occupier variable rate of around 5.99% p.a. comparison rate, with the lender assessing them at 8.99% (the 3% APRA buffer).

Their current borrowing capacity sits at roughly $760,000–$790,000 depending on the lender. They could buy now at $750,000 with a 10% deposit and LMI, or wait for a slightly bigger deposit. Here is what each 5 May outcome actually does to them.

Scenario A — RBA hikes 25 bp (the consensus call)

• Standard variable rate rises to ~6.24%. Assessment rate rises to ~9.24%.
• Borrowing capacity falls by ~2.4–2.7%, from ~$775,000 to roughly $754,000–$757,000. The $750,000 home is still just in reach, but with no margin for a strata report surprise or a higher-than-list outcome at auction.
• Repayment on a $675,000 loan rises by about $110/month ($1,320/year).
• House prices: CoreLogic and PropTrack data from the 2022–23 cycle suggests national prices typically fall 0.5–1.5% over the three months following a single 25 bp hike, with regional variation. On a $750,000 home that is roughly $4,000–$11,000 of price relief — but spread across three months, not delivered the day after the announcement.
• Net effect of waiting: capacity falls by ~$20,000 in the first week. Price relief, if it comes, is ~$4,000–$11,000 over three months. Waiting costs the buyer ~$9,000–$16,000 of buying power, plus three months of rent.

Scenario B — RBA holds (the ANZ call)

• Variable rates do not move. Capacity does not move.
• Markets re-price immediately. The 60–62% probability of a hike that was in the curve drops to near zero. Three- and five-year fixed rates typically fall 15–25 bp in the days after a "hawkish hold" — the same week, not three months later.
• House prices: the typical reaction to a hold is a small uplift in auction clearance rates the following weekend. Prices do not move much in a single week, but buyer confidence does.
• Net effect of waiting: roughly neutral on capacity, slightly negative on competition. The existing pre-approval gets cheaper to convert into a fixed-rate or split product.

Scenario C — RBA cuts 25 bp (the low-probability surprise)

• Variable rates fall ~25 bp. Assessment rate falls ~25 bp. Borrowing capacity rises by ~2.4–2.7%, from ~$775,000 to roughly $795,000–$800,000.
• Repayments fall by about $110/month on a $675,000 loan.
• House prices: CoreLogic data from the February 2025 cut showed Sydney prices lifting 0.7% in the four weeks following the announcement. Auction clearance rates jumped from 60% to 66% in the same window. The market re-prices upward inside a month.
• Net effect of waiting: capacity rises by ~$22,000, but median prices on the homes you are looking at typically rise by 0.5–1.0% ($3,750–$7,500) in the same period. Net buying power gain is real but modest — and competition from other buyers rises sharply.

The honest summary: two of the three scenarios punish waiting. The third (a cut) gives a small benefit, but only if you are still able to act quickly when the field gets crowded.

What history actually says about house prices through rate moves {#what-history-actually-says-about-house-prices-through-rate-moves}

If you are still tempted to wait for "the dip", look at what the dip actually did in the last full cycle.

Between May 2022 and November 2023, the RBA lifted the cash rate from 0.10% to 4.35% — the steepest hiking cycle in a generation. Over that 18-month period, CoreLogic's national Home Value Index fell only 8.4% peak-to-trough. Sydney, the most rate-sensitive capital, fell 12.4%. Then between November 2023 and February 2025, the national index recovered +11.0%. Most capital cities are now well above their 2022 peaks.

A buyer who waited from May 2022 (cash rate 0.10%) until February 2024 (cash rate 4.35%) saw national prices fall 8.4%. The same buyer's borrowing capacity, assessed at 3% APRA buffer, fell roughly 30% over the same window — every 100 bp of rate rise reduces capacity by ~10% on standard incomes. That is the asymmetry in numbers.

Two structural points reinforce the pattern in 2026:

1. Net dwelling completions in Australia have been running at ~165,000 per year against household formation of ~210,000 per year (ABS Building Activity, March 2026). The supply shortfall accumulates whether the RBA hikes or cuts.
2. Population growth through net overseas migration ran at +395,000 in calendar 2025 (ABS National, State and Territory Population, December 2025). The buyer pool keeps refilling.

Translation: the 2022–23 cycle is the cleanest natural experiment we have. The buyers who waited it out did not save money. They lost ground.

Where the supply side sits in April 2026 {#where-the-supply-side-sits-in-april-2026}

The macro story matters because it explains why prices are not collapsing even with three potential consecutive hikes.

• Auction volumes for the four weekends of April 2026 averaged 2,050 capital-city auctions per week (CoreLogic Weekly Auction Report). That is roughly 18% below the same period in 2025 — vendors are deferring.
• Days-on-market has lifted from 28 days (Q1 2025) to 41 days (Q1 2026), but inventory remains 22% below the five-year average.
• New listings in March 2026 were 11% below the five-year average for the month.

A market with falling listings, lengthening days-on-market, and broadly stable clearance rates is a market where buyers are negotiating harder but not finding meaningfully cheaper homes. That is the floor most buyers underestimate.

This is not a prediction. It is a description of the supply side. If the RBA hikes, this floor lifts your downside protection. If the RBA cuts, it accelerates the upside — and the buyers who already have unconditional pre-approval in their pocket get the first call.

A ten-day framework for buying around the 5 May decision {#a-ten-day-framework-for-buying-around-the-5-may-decision}

Here is the plan I am working through with my buyer clients this week. None of it requires a crystal ball. All of it is reversible.

1. Lock in pre-approval now, not after the announcement

Lender pre-approval typically lasts 90 days, and is assessed at today's rate plus the 3% APRA buffer. That matters in two ways:

• If the RBA hikes on 5 May, pre-approvals issued before the announcement are honoured at the rate they were assessed at, provided the lender does not re-assess. You keep your higher capacity for up to 90 days, while everyone else applies for a smaller loan.
• If the RBA cuts, you can ask the lender to re-issue at the new (lower) rate, or move to a lender offering a sharper price. You get the upside without locking in the downside.

This is the single most powerful lever in the next ten days. Pre-approval is free at every lender I work with, and the document itself takes 24–72 hours to issue once the file is complete. Do not enter a contract or attend a Saturday auction next week without it. (See: Pre-approval can fail at settlement for the seven failure modes most buyers don't see.)

2. Stress-test your repayment at +100 bp, not at today's rate

Even if the RBA holds on 5 May, the consensus from the major banks is that another two 25 bp hikes are possible by August. Run the numbers at a rate 1.00% above the rate your lender quotes you, and confirm the repayment fits inside 30% of your gross income with the rest of your obligations. If it does not, look at a smaller purchase price — not a longer term.

3. Choose your rate type with the cycle, not against it

If you genuinely believe the next move is up (the consensus view), a split loan or a 2–3 year fixed on part of the debt protects part of your repayment from further hikes while leaving the rest variable for offset and flexibility. I unpacked the mechanics in Fixed, variable, or split before the 5 May RBA decision — the core point is that fixed rates already trade below standard variable in late April 2026, so the "fixed pays for itself" argument is currently real. If you genuinely believe the next move is down, stay variable and push the savings into offset.

4. Keep two settlement-date options on the contract

For private treaty (not auction), negotiate a 45-day settlement with a five-day extension option. That gives finance an extra week of runway if the lender takes longer than expected. If the RBA cuts on 5 May and your file gets revalued, the extra week makes the difference between settlement and a 0.4% per-day extension fee.

5. Do not bid above your second-best loan offer

Brokers compare offers from the lender pool. The right comparison number is not the best rate you have been quoted — it is the second-best rate, because that is the rate you will end up at if your first-choice lender's policy or valuation moves against you on settlement. Bidding above the second-best loan effectively builds a 0.10–0.20% margin into your repayment for no gain. Most buyers don't model this.

6. Watch the Wednesday CPI, not the Tuesday RBA

Markets move on the CPI release on Wednesday 29 April, not on the RBA announcement six days later. By the time the Board speaks at 2:30pm on 5 May, the bond market has already priced 80% of the move. If you are deciding between offers and the CPI prints below 3.2% YoY (the RBA's working assumption), the cut probability rises immediately and fixed rates fall in days. The week between CPI and RBA is when the action actually happens.

Who should probably wait, and who probably shouldn't {#who-should-probably-wait-and-who-probably-shouldnt}

The short answer is "almost nobody should wait, but plenty of people should slow down". They are not the same thing.

Slow down — get pre-approval, refine the search, attend opens but don't sign — if any of these apply:

• You have less than a 5% genuine savings deposit and no access to the First Home Guarantee. Use the next 90 days to top up the deposit; the borrowing-capacity hit from a hike still applies, but you avoid LMI.
• Your file is mid-probation at work. Most lenders want at least three months of confirmed permanent income, ideally six.
• You are self-employed and your 2025 tax return is not yet lodged. I cover the document order in Self-employed home loan documents checklist. Lodging first, signing second, is almost always the right order.
• You have a probation-period bonus or commission income that becomes assessable in late 2026.

Don't wait — keep pursuing the right home — if any of these apply:

• Pre-approval is in place and the property is in the right pocket of the right suburb.
• You have a clean savings history, stable PAYG income, and a deposit at or above 10%.
• You are upgrading from an existing home and the sale-then-purchase logistics are sequenced (or bridging is in place — see Bridging finance in Australia).
• You are buying the home you intend to live in for 7+ years. At a 7-year hold, the average peak-to-trough drawdown in any Australian capital is statistically wiped out.

The only scenario where waiting is genuinely the right answer is "I am not actually ready, and the RBA conversation is the cover I am using to delay." If that is honest, fine. If it is not, the data is against you.

Pre-approval: the quiet lever most buyers undervalue {#pre-approval-the-quiet-lever-most-buyers-undervalue}

I keep coming back to pre-approval because it is the cheapest, lowest-risk move in the whole framework, and it is the one most buyers leave to last.

A formal pre-approval (what it is and what it isn't) does three things at once:

1. Locks in your assessment rate for up to 90 days at most lenders.
2. Establishes a finance ceiling so you are not bidding above what the bank will actually fund on the day.
3. Makes you a credible buyer in a private treaty negotiation. Vendors' agents take pre-approved offers more seriously than "subject to finance" ones, especially in a tighter listings market.

Issuing pre-approval costs nothing, does not lock you to the lender, and a soft credit footprint (lender enquiry) typically falls off your credit file in 12 months. There is almost no scenario where not having pre-approval before 5 May leaves you better off.

If you have not started the conversation yet, this is the week. Send the application and I will have a same-day response on suitability, target lender, and the documents we still need.

Frequently asked questions {#frequently-asked-questions}

Will the RBA actually hike on 5 May?

It is unknowable. The market is pricing 60–62% probability of a 25 bp hike. The major-bank economist house views split CBA, NAB, Westpac for hike, ANZ for hold (Canstar economist forecast). The single most important data point between now and the meeting is the March-quarter CPI on Wednesday 29 April. A trimmed-mean print at 3.0% or below shifts the probability of a hold materially. A print at 3.5% or above closes the conversation. This piece does not predict what the RBA will do; the framework above does not require a prediction.

Should I bid at auction this Saturday or wait until after the announcement?

If pre-approval is in place and the property is right, bid. The day-after-RBA auctions are typically more crowded, not less, regardless of the call. You also get the reassurance of an unconditional contract, which a private-treaty post-RBA offer does not give you. Confirm with your conveyancer that the contract terms align with your pre-approval before you raise your paddle.

What if rates rise and my repayment becomes uncomfortable?

Two safety nets exist regardless of the cycle. First, APRA's 3% serviceability buffer is designed precisely to test whether your file survives a rate rise of that magnitude — if you are pre-approved today, you are already assessed for ~9% rates (APRA quarterly statistics). Second, financial hardship assistance is available with every Australian lender under their hardship policy, and through the National Debt Helpline (1800 007 007) free of charge. Use it early, not late.

Is now a good time for first home buyers specifically?

The First Home Guarantee from 1 October 2025 has no income caps, unlimited places, and higher property price caps (Housing Australia announcement). A 5% deposit, no LMI, and the same APRA buffer applies. For first home buyers in particular, this is structurally the most accessible the scheme has been since launch. (See First Home Guarantee Scheme: 5% deposit and no LMI for the full mechanics.)

Is the property market about to crash?

There is no current data — CoreLogic, ABS, NHFIC or APRA — suggesting a crash. The 2022–23 cycle showed an 8.4% national peak-to-trough fall under the steepest hiking conditions in 30 years; the underlying supply deficit is wider in 2026 than it was then. A crash is not impossible, but it is not what the data is signalling. This article does not constitute property-market advice; speak to a licensed property professional for a market opinion.

What if I am borrowing through a guarantor?

Guarantor structures change the maths slightly because a portion of the loan is secured against a parent or family member's property, lowering effective LVR. Borrowing capacity is still set by your servicing — see Guarantor and family security home loans in Australia for what changes between a regular and a guarantor file.

A short word, broker-to-buyer

I have been a mortgage broker through three RBA cycles. The pattern repeats every time. Buyers who waited for "the right moment" looked back two years later and realised the moment they actually wanted was the one they spent worrying about.

I am not telling you to buy. I am telling you to make the decision deliberately, with the numbers in front of you, and to use pre-approval as a free option that costs you nothing and pays back in either direction the RBA goes. If the home is right, the file is clean, and the repayment fits at +100 bp, the calendar matters less than the contract.

If you want to walk through your own scenario before next Tuesday — what your borrowing capacity actually is at today's rate, how much it changes if the RBA hikes, and which lenders fit your file — send a quick enquiry, call 0400 77 77 55, or message me on WhatsApp. Same-day reply on business days. No upfront fee, no obligation, and you keep the pre-approval in your pocket whether or not we end up working together.

References and disclosures {#references-and-disclosures}

Primary sources used in this article:

• Reserve Bank of Australia — Cash Rate Target and Bulletin June 2024: How Mortgage Rate Changes Affect the Economy.
• Australian Bureau of Statistics — Consumer Price Index, Australia, Building Activity, Australia, National, State and Territory Population.
• Australian Prudential Regulation Authority — APG 223 Residential Mortgage Lending, Quarterly ADI Property Exposures Statistics.
• CoreLogic — Home Value Index, Weekly Auction Market Report.
• Housing Australia — First Home Guarantee program details.
• ASIC MoneySmart — Buying a home, Financial difficulty support.
• Major-bank economist forecasts compiled by Canstar — RBA cash rate forecasts (April 2026).
• National Debt Helpline — free, independent financial counselling on 1800 007 007.

General information disclosure. This article is general information only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not financial product advice or property-market advice. Interest rates, lender policies, APRA settings, government schemes and property-market data referenced are accurate to the best of my knowledge as at 25 April 2026 and may change without notice. Forecasts cited are major-bank economist views and not predictions; the Reserve Bank's actual decision will be published on its website at 2:30pm AEST on Tuesday 5 May 2026. Worked scenarios use illustrative rates and may not match offers available to you. Before applying for a home loan or a property purchase, consider whether the product and timing are appropriate for your circumstances and seek licensed advice.

Responsible lending and hardship. All Australian lenders are required to lend in line with the National Consumer Credit Protection Act 2009 and ASIC's responsible-lending obligations. If you are experiencing financial hardship, contact your lender's hardship team or the National Debt Helpline on 1800 007 007 for free, independent assistance.

Broker disclosure. Bishnu Adhikari is the director of Azure Home Loans, a credit representative of Australian Finance Group Ltd (AFG, Australian Credit Licence 389087). Azure Home Loans receives commissions from lenders when a loan settles. We do not charge upfront fees to clients for a residential mortgage. We do not provide tax, financial-product, legal, real-estate or insurance advice; you should seek your own qualified adviser for those areas.

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If this piece helped, the related reading below covers the immediate next steps — choosing your rate type around the same RBA window, getting pre-approval right, and avoiding the late-stage finance traps I see most often this time of year.